Friday, February 11, 2011

Coffee eases from 13-1/2-year peak, sugar rises

* Long-term target for arabicas at $2.88/lb - Sucden

* Cocoa prices near 1-yr high on Ivory Coast supply worries

* Modest tonnage expected for expiry of March white sugars

(Adds comment, updates prices)

By Anna Yukhananov and David Brough

LONDON, Feb 11 (Reuters) - Arabica coffee futures consolidated lower on Friday, lingering below their highest level in almost 14 years, and cocoa nudged below Thursday's one-year high, weighed down by a strong dollar.

Raw sugar rose, but remained in a tight range near a 30-year high on continued uncertainty over exports from India, while London white sugar dipped before expiry of the March contract on Friday.

New York's benchmark May arabicas were down 0.95 cent or 0.4 percent to $2.5690 per lb at 1248 GMT after touching $2.58 a lb on Thursday, their highest since late May 1997.

Coffee prices have rallied sharply since mid-2010, underpinned by tight supplies of high-quality washed arabica beans, attracting heavy fund buying.

"Funds are doing quite well on it at the moment, while roasters are waiting for a reasonable dip in the market," a London-based dealer said.

"At the end of the day, it's just the lack of selling. The market keeps butting its head up against a new high every few days, and the line of resistance seems to be on the upside."

Analysts do not expect the rally to reverse any time soon, as Colombia, the top producer of washed arabicas, is entering its third straight year of below-average harvest and Brazil is in an off-year in its crop cycle.

Brenda Sullivan, technical analyst at Sucden in London, said $2.88 a lb was a long-term extension target for arabicas.

"However, now that the technical targets near $2.55 have been met, coffee's gains may stall and we may see vulnerability towards a recent congestion area around $2.52," she said.

Liffe May robusta coffee edged up $2 to $2,261 per tonne, below its 2-1/4-year high of $2,287, catching up to the surge in New York after London markets had closed.

COCOA LINGERS NEAR 1-YR PEAK ON I. COAST

New York cocoa retreated to just below its recent one-year peak on Friday in thin volumes after heavy technical trading and shortcovering on Thursday, with political turmoil in top grower Ivory Coast continuing to support prices.

"You don't want to be short in this market when there's still this looming situation in Ivory Coast," a trader in London said, adding that a strong dollar could be weighing on prices in early trading. See

Cocoa futures have rallied in recent days as investors pondered whether presidential claimant Alassane Ouattara would extend his Jan. 23 call for a month-long export ban in Ivory Coast to further starve funds from his rival, Laurent Gbagbo.

ICE cocoa futures for May fell $5 or 0.2 percent to $3,368 a tonne at 1248 GMT, below Thursday's peak of $3,431, the highest since Jan. 2010.

London's May cocoa contract rose 9 pounds or 0.4 percent to 2,185 pounds per tonne, below its six-month peak of 2,269 pounds a tonne, supported by a weak pound.

ICE raw sugar futures edged up in choppy computer-generated dealings, with volumes modest, as investors focused on extreme price fluctuations in sugar markets.

Keith Flury, a senior analyst with Rabobank, said he believed there was a link between market fundamentals and the volatility, and that he expected volatility to decrease when new-crop Brazilian sugar comes onstream from April.

"Supply is going to be the underlying solution," Flury said.

Trade houses seeking to hedge positions are suffering from heavy volatility of sugar futures caused by computer-generated trading, brokers said.

The benchmark ICE March raw sugar contract rose 0.37 cent or 1.2 percent to 32.42 cents a lb at 1248 GMT, while London's March white sugar futures fell $5.40 or 0.7 percent to $780.00 per tonne, with the contract set to expire.

A modest tonnage, possibly below 120,000 tonnes and perhaps including Central American and Indian supplies, looks set to be delivered against expiry of the Liffe March white sugar futures contract on Friday, dealers said.

(Source: http://www.futurespros.com/news/softs-news/softs-coffee-eases-from-13-1-2-year-peak,-sugar-rises-1000007403)

No comments:

Post a Comment