Monday, February 7, 2011

Sugar up on physical demand, lower India forecast

* Sugar's retreat from 30-yr peaks boosts physical demand




 * Uganda's January coffee exports down 18.6 pct y/y




 * Dealers await further news on Ivory Coast cocoa export ban








 By Anna Yukhananov




 LONDON, Feb 7 (Reuters) - Raw sugar futures climbed on
Monday, supported by trimmed forecasts for Indian sugar output
and renewed physical buying after prices pulled away from
30-year peaks.




 Arabica coffee futures also rose as high-quality beans
remained in short supply, while cocoa dipped slightly on
technical factors, falling further from one-year peaks.




 ICE March raw sugar SBc1 gained 0.47 cent or 1.4 percent
to 33.11 cents per lb at 1536 GMT, below the 30-year peak of
36.08 cents touched last Wednesday.




 London March white sugar LSUH1 was up $8.30 or 1 percent
at $802.70 per tonne, below last week's record high of $857.00
per tonne.




 Dealers said lower sugar prices encouraged more physical
buying, as the March contract on ICE had its first weekly loss
in three weeks on Friday after falling 3.9 percent.




 "There's probably a bit of buy-back after that major drop at
the end of last week," said Keith Flury, analyst at Rabobank in
London. "And as long as the supply situation is pretty bullish,
(sugar) is still able to maintain that upward trajectory."




 Markets were also boosted after an Indian state cut its
outlook for the country's 2010/11 sugar crop to 24 million
tonnes, below government estimates. [ID:nDEB000041]




 The government in India, the world's second-largest producer
after Brazil, will only approve 500,000 tonnes of sugar exports
if there is enough sugar for domestic consumption. India is the
world's biggest consumer of the sweetener.




 "India's the crunch. With the estimate closer to 24 (million
tonnes) than 25, it's giving people renewed confidence, so we
might see (the market) climb slowly back up," one London-based
trader said, adding that support was at 32 cents a lb, with
resistance at 34 cents.




 




 BRAZILIAN COFFEE IN DEMAND




 Coffee futures were higher as better quality beans continued
to be hard to find, propping up arabica prices.




 "Brazilian prices have rocketed; exporters are really
struggling to source quality coffee," a European fund analyst
said.




 Last week, the futures price for arabica coffee trading in
Sao Paulo were above the 13-1/2-year highs in benchmark New York
trading for the first time since the 1990s, indicating high
demand for coffee in Brazil, dealers said. [ID:nN03480457]




 "Either their crop is not as big as expected or they've
already over-exported," the analyst said about Brazil.




 Colombia, the world's biggest producer of high quality
washed arabica beans, is entering its third year of
lower-than-average production due to adverse weather and a
rejuvenation program that took many trees out of production.




 As a consequence, many roasters have turned to Brazil, the
world's biggest coffee producer.




 ICE March arabicas KCc1 gained 1.65 cent or 0.7 percent at
$2.5095 per lb at 1537 GMT, below its 13-1/2-year peak of
$2.5360 a lb from last Thursday.




 Liffe May robusta coffee LRCc2 was up $6 or 0.3 percent at
$2,243 per tonne, below its 2-1/4-year high of $2,287.




 Coffee exports in Uganda, Africa's second-largest producer,
fell by 18.6 percent in January compared with a year earlier due
to unfavourable weather, a source at the Uganda Coffee
Development Authority said on Monday. [ID:nLDE7160AM]




 Cocoa prices on ICE retreated further from their one-year
peaks on technical trading after rallying on the back of a Jan.
23 call for a month-long export ban in Ivory Coast, which
produces about a third of the world's crop.




 Markets were focused on whether the African Union (AU) could
find a diplomatic resolution to Ivory Coast's political turmoil,
and whether the ban would be extended, dealers said.
[ID:nLDE7140BH]




 "There's technical considerations and some long
liquidations," a London-based trader said. "There's also an AU
delegation there today, so from that perspective you're likely
to see a quiet patch."




 Ivory Coast continues to harvest a bumper crop, with cocoa
arrivals at ports 12.5 percent higher compared with the same
period last year by Feb. 6, though shipments were halted since
the ban, hitting the tail end of the crop. [ID:nLDE7160TJ]




 ICE benchmark May cocoa futures CCc1 eased $26 or 0.8
percent to $3,225 per tonne, while London May cocoa LCCc2 fell
22 pounds or 1 percent to 2,103 pounds a tonne.




 
* Prices as of 1538 GMT
Product Last Change Pct Move End 2010 Ytd Pct
ICE sugar 33.09 0.45 +1.38 32.12 3.02
ICE coffee 253.00 1.75 +0.70 241.80 4.63
ICE cocoa 3239.00 -25.00 -0.77 3052.00 6.13
Liffe sugar 802.50 8.10 +1.02 777.50 3.22
Liffe coffee 2244.00 7.00 +0.31 2097.00 7.01
Liffe cocoa 2104.00 -21.00 -0.99 2029.00 3.70
CRB index 339.64 0.72 +0.21 332.80 2.06
Crude oil 88.63 -0.40 -0.45 91.38 -3.01
Euro/dlr 1.35 -0.01 -0.40 1.34 1.14




 * ICE sugar and ICE coffee in cents per lb; ICE cocoa, Liffe
sugar and Liffe coffee in dollars per tonne; Liffe cocoa in
pounds per tonne.
(Additional reporting by Sarah McFarlane; editing by Alison
Birrane)


(Source: http://af.reuters.com/article/commoditiesNews/idAFLDE7160NU20110207)

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