Wednesday, March 23, 2011

SOFTS-Coffee dips on bearish charts, firm dollar

* Sugar Distributors see harvest delays in Brazil due to rain
* Concerns over supplies from Côte d'Ivoire cocoa price support
* The technical indicators point to further losses in Arabic
(Updates prices)
By David Brough
LONDON, March 23 (Reuters) - Arabica coffee futures fell on Wednesday, edging further from a 34-year high touched earlier this month, while ICE cocoa slid a stronger dollar weighs on commodity markets.
Sugar futures were also lower than the dealers, who have digested news about exports 500,000 tons of free India, turned their attention to possible delays in the collection in the central-south due to the humid climate of Brazil. [ID: nSGE72M00C
The dollar strengthened against the euro and British pound on Wednesday on concerns of a political crisis in Portugal in debt may force the government to request financial assistance.
Traders said the decline in arabica coffee is largely due to technical indicators. "The recent fall is more technical and related to macroeconomics with the Japanese crisis and investors are more risk averse," said Stefan Uhlenbrock, analyst FOR Licht.
"I expect prices to start rising again after the Japanese crisis and Libya agree because (2011/12) crop forecasts is not sufficient to meet demand."
A bearish target $ 2.64 per pound is equal to New York, coffee in terms of its wave pattern, a Reuters analyst Wang Tao said.
ICE May arabica coffee fell 4.10 cents, or 1.5 percent to $ 2.6935 per pound at 1536 GMT.
London, May robust down $ 32, or 1.25 percent, to $ 2.537 per tonne.
Robust premium from May to July was about $ 135, below its peak last week above $ 200.
Historically, high prices are expected to encourage farmers to maximize output, but if the tree plantations will expand remains to be seen.
CAUTION FARMER
"There may be a supply response. These high prices may lead farmers to take more care of established trees, but I do not see an immediate response in terms of trees being planted," said Uhlenbrock.
"Farmers with their experience of low prices between 2000 and 2004 might be prudent with additional plantings."
Cocoa futures fell, but losses were limited by the conflict in Ivory Coast, with supplies from the West African country is bounded by a ban on exports, EU sanctions and a paralyzed banking system.
"European stocks continue to decline. Things do not last more criticism becomes" a London-based broker said, adding that the escalation of violence was a concern.
cocoa exporters on Tuesday dismissed a report by the media that some were prepared to resume the payment of taxes on exports to Ivory Coast, Laurent Gbagbo, saying that a de facto embargo on shipments expected.
"Eventually there will be a good demand for the stock certificates if the Ivorian situation continues," said the broker.
ICE May cocoa fell $ 7, or 0.2 percent, to $ 3,256 a tonne, down from more than 32 years touched $ 3,775 earlier this month.
London cocoa rose May 4 pounds to 2093 pounds per tonne, driven by the weakness of sterling.
ICE raw sugar futures prices eased as the market continued to absorb the announcement of India sugar. Global supply shortages and low stocks underpinning the market.
ICE Futures May raw sugar was down 0.41 percent or 1.5 percent to 26.75 cents per pound, down from last month its 30 years of 36.08 cents.
London, May white sugar fell $ 11.20 or 1.6 percent to $ 689,200 per tonne.
Dealers noted its concern over delays in the harvest in Brazil due to wet weather.
"While the rains are not harmful in general, there is concern about the production of sucrose and the impact on yields in Brazil," said James Kirkup, director sugar brokerage ABN AMRO

(Source: http://www.futurespros.com/news/softs-news/softs-coffee-dips-on-bearish-charts,-firm-dollar-1000009274)

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