Wednesday, March 23, 2011

Technical signs, strong dollar push coffee lower

* Raw sugar is exceptionally thin volume
* Commercial prevented from buying more losses in cocoa
* The technical indicators point to further losses in Arabic (Releads, updates prices, adds price chart, analyst comments, signature, date)
By Marcy Nicholson and David Brough
NEW YORK / LONDON, March 23 (Reuters) - Arabica coffee futures fell on Wednesday, edging further from a 34-year high touched earlier this month, while cocoa has changed slightly as a ban on export the largest producer Ivory Coast keeps things status quo.
volume of raw sugar over the course dribbled lower through sales of small speculators in very light volume as many players were sidelined waiting for the start of the main crop in Brazil Center-South, dampening interest in the sweetener, traders said.
The strong U.S. dollar. UU. added pressure to the soft goods complex, which was treated fine. The euro fell to about a political crisis in the debt-ridden Portugal could force the government to seek help, despite losses in the single currency should be limited amid expectations of rising interest rates in the euro area.
Traders said the decline in arabica coffee is largely due to technical indicators, after the contract in question was unable to break the key support level of $ 2.83.
"The recent fall is more technical and related to macroeconomics with the Japanese crisis and investors are more risk averse," said Stefan Uhlenbrock, analyst FOR Licht.
"I expect prices to start rising again after the Japanese crisis and Libya agree because (2011/12) crop forecasts is not sufficient to meet demand."
ICE May arabica coffee fell 3.75 cents, or 1.4 percent to $ 2.6970 per pound in 1724 GMT. London, May robust down $ 11, or 0.43 percent, to $ 2,558 per tonne.
Robust premium from May to July was about $ 142, down from its peak last week above $ 200.
A bearish target $ 2.64 per pound is equal to New York, coffee in terms of its wave pattern, a Reuters analyst Wang Tao said.
CAUTION FARMER
"There may be a supply response. The high prices may lead farmers to take extra care of established trees, but I do not see an immediate response in terms of trees being planted, Uhlenbrock said, referring to coffee.
Cocoa futures fell, but losses were limited by the conflict in Ivory Coast, with supplies from the West African country is bounded by a ban on exports, EU sanctions and a paralyzed banking system.
"European stocks continue to decline. Things do not persist, the more critical it becomes" a London-based broker said, adding that the escalation of violence was a concern.
ICE May cocoa was down $ 12 to close at $ 3,251 a tonne, down from the peak of the last 32 years of $ 3.775. London, May cocoa ended flat at 2.089 pounds per ton.
Investors and large trade liquidation has been met with commercial buying as prices fell about $ 500 since the most recent.
"It puts the market essentially long calls and long, but the trade are not fully covered," said a veteran U.S. cocoa dealer.
Raw sugar fell unusually thin volume after Wednesday's announcement of plans for the export of sugar from India had been marked in sugar prices, leaving the track was lack of young players to lighten their positions.
"This is just a small amount of settlement," said Jack Scoville, analyst at brokers, the Price Group in Chicago.
May / July spread of raw sugar in U.S. ICE appears to have stabilized, refers to an indication about the offer seems to have diminished.
ICE Futures May raw sugar was down 0.59 percent or 2.2 percent to 26.57 cents a pound, while in London on May white sugar fell $ 12.50, or 1.8 percent to $ 687.90 per ton.
"While the rains are not harmful in general, there is concern about the production of sucrose and the impact on yields in Brazil," said James Kirkup, director sugar brokerage ABN AMRO (Markets) of the United Kingdom * Prices Ltd. as a product of 1731 GMT Last Change Pct Move End 2010 Pct YTD sugar -2.17 -0.59 32.12 26.57 ICE Coffee ICE -17.28 -4.20 271.50 241.80 -1 , 52 12.28 -9.00 -0.28 3252.00 ICE Cocoa Sugar 6.55 Liffe from 3.052,00 687.90 777.50 -12.50 -1.78 -11.52 Liffe coffee in 2538, 00 -31.00 2.097,00 -1.21 21.03 Liffe cocoa 2.090,00 2.029,00 5.00 0.24 3.01 CRB Index 356.37 332.80 -0.08 -0.02 7 , 08 oil 15.64 91.38 0.67 0.70 105.67 Euro / dlr 1.41 -0.01 1.34 -0.59 5.53 * sugar and coffee ICE ICE cents per pound, ICE cocoa, sugar and coffee Liffe LIFFE in dollars per ton. LIFFE cocoa pounds per tonne.

(Source: http://www.futurespros.com/news/softs-news/softs-technical-signs,-strong-dollar-push-coffee-lower-1000009277)

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