* Dry weather may hit 2011/2012 coffee yield
* Dry season peaking now
* Still early to assess weather damage -traders (Adds details)
By Ho Binh Minh
HANOI, March 1 (Reuters) - Extensive dry weather in Vietnam's Central Highlands coffee belt may affect the country's 2011/2012 harvest, with output expected to fall, a state-run newspaper quoted a senior industry official as saying on Tuesday.
"Water shortages, drought and climate change would cause uneven flowering on coffee trees and thus strongly affect the yield," Luong Van Tu, chairman of the Vietnam Coffee and Cocoa Association, was quoted by the Nong Nghiep Vietnam newspaper as saying.
He said output from the next 2011/2012 crop year would fall "strongly", but gave no figures.
Tu could not be reached for comment on Tuesday.
Traders say output figures provided by the coffee association can be under-estimates aimed at inflating prices.
Last December the coffee association estimated the 2010/2011 crop at 15.75 million 60 kilogram bags, down from 17.5 million bags in the previous crop.
The figure was well below the 18.43 million bags estimated last month for the crop by the International Coffee Organization, of which Vietnam is a member.
The Vietnamese government does not provide official coffee production forecasts and traders instead must rely on estimates and data from other sources.
Forecasts of lower output from Vietnam, the world's largest producer of robusta beans, could contribute to rising global robusta prices, which has been gaining in recent months as roasters and funds switched their buying from the arabica market.
Last Tuesday, the New York May arabica contract peaked at $2.7840 per lb, the highest level for the second position since May 1977, and London May robusta touched a 2-1/2-year high at $2,417 a tonne.
Underground water sources in the central highland provinces of Daklak, Gia Lai and Kontum have dropped 3-4 metres (10-13 feet) from previous years, causing serious water shortages for growers, Tu was quoted by the Agriculture Ministry-run newspaper as saying.
Daklak is the country's largest coffee growing province, where water shortages strike every year.
Farmers in the Central Highlands comprising five provinces have now started the second phase of watering trees under the 2011/2012 season, the harvest for which is due to start from late October or early November.
Farmers normally water trees three to four times from February to early May when rains return to the region. Water supply is crucial to ensuring yield in March and April, when the annual dry season peaks.
But traders told Reuters it was now still early to assess any potential damage from the dry weather on the coffee crop.
"Water is sufficient for the first two phases, while we may have some shortages during the third watering phase," a grower in Daklak's district of Krong Buk said by telephone.
The third phase would take place in April. Vietnam's coffee crop year lasts between October and September, starting with a four-month harvest.
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