Uganda Slashes Coffee-Export Forecast by 16% After Drought Reduces Yields

Uganda, Africa’s second-biggest coffee exporter, slashed its shipment forecast for the 2010-11 season by 16 percent after a drought cut yields, the Uganda Coffee Development Authority said.

Exports in the 12 months through September 2011 may drop to 2.6 million 60-kilogram (132-pound) bags, compared with a Sept. 20 estimate of 3.1 million bags, an official at the UCDA said by phone today from Kampala, the capital. He declined to be identified because the information isn’t public.

The revised forecast is 2.6 percent lower than the 2.67 million bags exported last season.

Uganda ranks behind Ethiopia as the continent’s largest exporter of coffee, according to the website of the International Coffee Organization, or ICO. The robusta variety accounts for about 85 percent of the East African nation’s annual production of the beans. ICO data shows Ugandan exports from March 2010 to February 2011 were 12 percent lower than the same period a year earlier.

The UCDA’s new forecast is based on the country’s export performance from April 2010 through March, when 2.54 million bags were shipped, the UCDA official said.

Robusta-coffee futures for July delivery climbed $8, or 0.3 percent, to $2,434 per metric ton at 9 a.m. in London. The contract has risen 15 percent so far this year.

Climate Change

Uganda, East Africa’s third-largest economy, has experienced a dry spell since December that the government attributes to climate change. More than 95 percent of the country’s coffee is grown by small-scale farmers whose crop is predominantly rain-fed, according to the authority.

Uganda earned $243.6 million from the sales of the beans last season, down from $291.3 million a year earlier. Less than 3 percent of annual output is consumed domestically, according to the Eastern African Fine Coffee Association.

The country plans to increase production to 4.5 million bags a season by 2015 through a replanting program, after yields declined since the 1996-97 season because of crop damage caused by coffee wilt disease, according to the authority.

(Source: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-04-13/uganda-slashes-coffee-export-forecast-by-16-after-drought-reduces-yields.html)